Russia's secret arms deals: Study reveals explosive trade routes!

Russia's secret arms deals: Study reveals explosive trade routes!

With the start of the Ukraine War, Russia's trade structures and relationships changed dramatically. Despite the extensive economic sanctions and export bans imposed by the USA and the EU in February 2022, a current study shows that countries friendly to Russia are increasingly exporting military equipment to Russia. This is contrary to Western efforts to deny Russia access to technologies for military equipment, so that, for example, Western technologies can still be found in Ukrainian drones and missiles. uni-wuerzburg.de reports that the likelihood that countries friendly with Russia would export sanctioned military products to Russia has increased by almost 20 percentage points.

The study, which analyzes UN Comtrade trade data for 2021 to 2023, covers 122 countries and shows that logistics companies in these countries have increased the transport of Western goods to Russia. There is a significant increase because exports of military goods are 20 percent more likely to move to Russia from states friendly to Russia than from neutral countries. In addition, Western countries are four percent more likely to export sanctioned products to these countries.

The new trade axes

Another aspect of the changed trade relations is the significant shift in export markets. Before the Ukrainian war, almost half of Russian exports went to European countries, especially in the energy sector. But at the end of 2023, China and India have become the main exponents of Russian trade dw.com clarified. Together they account for almost 50 percent of Russia's total exports; India alone accounts for 33 percent, while China accounts for 17 percent. In contrast, the EU has reduced its energy imports from Russia by a dramatic 90 percent.

The dependence on China is becoming increasingly clear. China's exports to Russia have exploded in recent years, accounting for over 50 percent of all goods imported into Russia in 2023. This means that while Russia can survive, it will lose access to high quality products as before. One example is the static decline in goods supplied by the EU, which now only accounts for around 15 percent of Russian imports.

Consequences of the sanctions

Russia now faces over 12,000 sanctions, the most in the world. Most sanctions target individuals, while the legal entities only affect around 1,500. Companies such as Aldi, BASF, Evonik and Henkel have completely withdrawn from Russia. It is evident that these sanctions entail profound economic losses for Russia, which are reflected in sharp declines in foreign trade. So Russia recorded a decline in exports by 36 percent and imports by more than 30 percent, while iwd.de indicates a permanent loss of prosperity of 1.5 percent for Russia.

These developments show that while Russia has found alternative trading partners, it has also become increasingly dependent, particularly on China, which could have long-term implications for the country's economic balance.