New model for storm surge forecasting influences coastal protection in Germany

New model for storm surge forecasting influences coastal protection in Germany

On March 9, 2025, Dr. Daniel Krieger from the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability at the University of Hamburg presented an innovative model for predicting storm surges. This study, published in the specialist magazineGeophysical Research Letterswas published could be crucial for coastal protection in Germany and beyond. The new model combines weather data, a traditional climate computing model and modern artificial intelligence to make previously unattainable predictions.

The predictions were tested using historical data for the coastal cities of Cuxhaven, Esbjerg (Denmark) and Delfzijl (Netherlands). An average of 11.6 storm surges per year have been recorded in Cuxhaven over the last ten years. The model forecasts an increase to 12.8 storm surges over the same period, indicating a tolerance range of 1.6 storm surges. Stability at 12 storm surges per year is expected by 2029.

Relevance for coastal protection

The importance of these predictions is indispensable in numerous areas. Coastal protection, dike construction and port infrastructure are the focus as climate change leads to sea level rise and entails numerous changes in coastal regions, such as Lufi describes. The challenges arising from intensive use of coastal areas and climate change are forcing society to adapt to new adaptive strategies.

What is particularly noteworthy is that many of the previous climate models were only able to predict the frequency of storms in the North Sea, but not their specific impacts on coastal regions. With the help of around 700,000 water level measurements recorded every hour since 1940, Dr. Krieger can use this to carry out a more precise analysis. The statistical model learned that 80% of the data was used for training the model while 20% was used for validation, which significantly improves the prediction accuracy.

Economic impacts and protection strategies

The economic consequences of sea level rise are already being felt today. The maritime sector, including sea fishing, fish processing and offshore technology, is of central importance for the coastal regions in Germany, which also have high values ​​in the leisure and recreation sector. However, the intensive use of the seas often leads to ecological stress, such as this Federal Environment Agency explained in detail. They also address the need to protect at least 10% of marine areas and discuss the challenges related to the effects of climate change.

The prevailing climatic and ecological conditions require transdisciplinary approaches to ensure foolproof coastal protection. The national strategy for integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) aims to promote the ecologically intact and economically prosperous development of the coasts, although no specific adaptation measures have yet been defined in the ICZM process. The ongoing research mission “sustainMare” pursues similar goals and examines the use of the oceans.

Especially the findings of Dr. Warriors about future storm surges could be highly relevant in the 2030s. An internal climate fluctuation that is currently dampening the effects of sea level rise could only increase storm surges during this time. This is particularly true for the coming years, in which the average storm surge height is expected to double to three meters.

Current developments make it necessary for both our infrastructure and coastal protection measures to adapt and develop. In view of the pressing challenges, it is essential to derive robust action and management options in order to protect coastal regions and secure the habitat of the future.