Right-wing populism on the rise: Why the center is faltering

Right-wing populism on the rise: Why the center is faltering

On March 9, 2025, the political landscapes in Germany and Europe shifted further. A new study from the University of Mannheim sheds light on developments since the late 1970s. It shows that the attempt by centrist politicians to move closer to right-wing populist positions often does not bring the hoped-for voter gains. Instead, voters tend to remain loyal to the “originals” like the AfD. By adopting right-wing populist rhetoric, conservative parties risk losing voters to the AfD, which is a worrying trend.

In particular, the long-standing discussion about migration has caused politicians like Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz to move more towards right-wing positions. Merz believed he could win back voters from the AfD, but his tactics failed, which put him and parts of the CDU under pressure. Angela Merkel expressed concerns that Merz's long-term strategy was unsustainable.

Right-wing populism in the European context

The trend toward normalization of right-wing populist parties since the 1980s is not just a German phenomenon. Similar developments can be observed in other European countries. In Austria, the FPÖ under Herbert Kickl won 28.85% of the votes in the 2024 National Council elections and is now the strongest force. In Germany, too, the AfD achieved up to 30% of the vote in local and national elections in 2014, especially in the federal states of Saxony and Thuringia. Forecasts suggest it could potentially reach 20% in the 2025 federal election.

These developments are consistent with a broader analysis in Europe, where right-wing parties have gained influence in many countries. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her conservative alliance have a powerful presence in the political arena, while Marine Le Pen continues to dominate the migration discussion in France. The rise of right-wing populist parties is often characterized by anti-democratic and racist resentments and exploits crisis situations such as the corona pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Social impact and resistance

The Hans Böckler Foundation points out that anti-democratic attitudes are not only found on the fringes of society, but are also widespread in the center. Dissatisfaction with social conditions, exacerbated by the Corona crisis, plays a decisive role in susceptibility to right-wing populist ideologies. 61% of AfD voters agree with conspiracy myths about the pandemic and show parallels to similar tendencies in the context of the Ukraine war.

However, active civil society has the potential to counteract the right-wing trend. After votes, hundreds of thousands took to the streets to protest against normalization rights. A strong commitment by trade unions could also be helpful in reducing anti-democratic attitudes in society.

In summary, it can be said that the normalization of right-wing populism in Germany and Europe reveals deeper social distortions. Political institutions are faced with the challenge of regaining the trust of the population, while at the same time the discourse on migration, social inequality and the crisis of democratic values ​​is more urgent than ever. More than ever, it is important to understand the causes of the rise of right-wing populist parties and to develop effective counter-strategies.

Leuphana reports that... | Böckler Foundation analyzes anti-democratic attitudes... | Deutschlandfunk observes international trends...