Demographic emergency in Russia: Putin's desperate fight for the future!

Demographic emergency in Russia: Putin's desperate fight for the future!

On Tuesday, April 1st, at 6 p.m., a lecture by Ivan Krastev entitled “The Return of the Future and the Last Man: Politics of Demographic Imagination” will take place at the Research College for Human Sciences in Bad Homburg. Krastev, born in 1965, is chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and Albert Hirschman Permanent Fellow in Vienna. His analysis will focus on the future of democracy and the reasons why many people are turning away from it. The event will be opened by Prof. Johannes Völz, an American studies scholar and co-speaker of the John McCloy Transatlantic Forum. Participation requires registration by March 27th at anmelde@forschungskolleg-humanwissen.de.

Krastev has made a name for himself through his regular contributions to the Financial Times and has published several books in recent years, including “The light that went out” (2021) and “European Twilight” (2017). His work has been awarded the Jean Améry Prize for European Essays (2020) and the Lionel Gelber Prize (2020). The John McCloy Lectures, in which Krastev speaks, have already been given by well-known personalities such as Charles A. Kupchan and Sigmar Gabriel and highlight important topics in transatlantic relations.

Demographic challenges in Russia

Krastev's lecture takes place against the backdrop of global demographic changes. Russia in particular is facing a significant population decline, which President Vladimir Putin perceives as a serious problem. Since the end of the Soviet Union, the country has lost around 17 million people. Fertility rates in many societies, including Russia, are falling sharply, and many countries are not reaching the levels necessary to sustain populations. This affects both rich and poor nations as well as secular and religious communities.

Gender-specific mortality in Russia is extremely high; On average, women live almost 12 years longer than men. The current demographic situation is perceived by Putin as a security problem because it threatens his power and Russia's influence. Projections suggest the country's population could shrink to between 74 and 112 million by 2100. Given these challenges, the war in Ukraine may be seen as an attempt to integrate ethnic Russians and expand the population. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 added about 2.4 million ethnic Russians to Russia.

Putin's policy of population preservation

Putin's political mindset views demographic decline as an existential threat, interpreted as a form of war against the erasure of Russian culture. The Kremlin blames low birth rates on Western influences, particularly feminism and LGBTQ politics. Putin and his supporters fear that the West is trying to undermine Russia's demographic vitality.

In addition, the war in Ukraine is deliberately linked to the mass abduction of children who are trafficked to Russia and adopted into families. So Putin sees Ukraine as a potential source of future Russian citizens. These dynamics represent not only a geopolitical conflict, but also a profound demographic challenge that could fundamentally change Russia's social structure.