Volcano research in Naples: Is Campi Flegrei threatened with a super eruption?

Volcano research in Naples: Is Campi Flegrei threatened with a super eruption?

An international research team led by the University of Göttingen has gained new insights into volcanic activity in the Phlegraean Fields near Naples. In their current study, published in Bulletin of Volcanology, scientists analyzed how volcanic magma from deep could potentially impact a volcanic eruption.

The research focused on the advance warning time of a possible outbreak. This is crucial in order to be able to issue timely warnings to the population in the surrounding area. The study shows that fresh magma can lead to an eruption within a time frame of around 60 years. The advance warning time varies considerably, depending on the temperature of the magma.

Advance warning time and temperatures

The research team found that higher magma temperatures of over 900 degrees Celsius could reduce the warning time to less than four years. In contrast, lower temperatures below 850 degrees Celsius could extend the warning time to between eight and 380 years. These valuable insights were gained by analyzing growth rings of magmatic crystals in the magma reservoir, which document the processes that occur before a volcanic eruption.

In addition, mathematical modeling was used to show that a replenishment of fresh magma could cause the older magma in the Earth's crust to erupt. This research contributes to deepening the understanding of the complex dynamic processes that occur in volcanic regions. Earthquake activity in the Phlegraean Fields has increased over the past four years, sparking concerns about a possible impending eruption. Nevertheless, the results of the study currently indicate no sign of an imminent eruption.

Risks of an eruption

The Phlegraean Fields are known for their volcanic activity, which has continued for over 300,000 years. An eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano could have devastating consequences, both locally and globally. Experts like Mastrolorenzo estimate that a potential eruption could be about ten times more powerful than the famous Vesuvius eruption of 79 AD. A VEI 7 (Volcanic Explosivity Index) eruption would completely devastate the Naples metropolitan area, while a VEI 8 eruption could produce a huge ash cloud reaching over the Alps.

Such scenarios pose significant risks for European crop yields as well as for the economy and the climate. However, the majority of scientists consider a supereruption to be the least likely scenario. Nevertheless, recent earthquakes and ground surveys suggest that Campi Flegrei may be preparing for an eruption. Smaller eruptions, particularly near Solfatara, are considered more likely, while an eruption similar to the formation of Monte Nuovo in 1538 cannot be ruled out either.

National Geographic's Francesca Bianco points out that there is currently no data to indicate that magma is near the surface. This information highlights the need for continued research and monitoring in this geologically active region to understand the safety of local residents and the potential impact on Europe. The research work was carried out by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the German Academic Exchange Service.