Election promises under pressure: Scientists reveal explosive findings

Election promises under pressure: Scientists reveal explosive findings

In an increasingly complex political landscape, the importance of election promises and their fulfillment is becoming increasingly clear. During an international workshop entitled "Promises Under Pressure? The Role of Pledges in a Changing Political Landscape" from July 10th to 11th, 2025, from Institute for Democracy Research was organized, experts highlighted the challenges governments face in keeping their promises. The participants, including Dr. Juha Ylisalo from the University of Turku, agreed that the precise wording in the coalition agreement is crucial for the actual implementation of the political commitments.

As part of the workshop, researchers from various countries, including Finland, Greece and the USA, came together to discuss the different dimensions of election promises. Over 60 researchers are part of an international network that critically examines the creation, evaluation and breaking of election promises. Prof. Dr. Robert Thomson from the University of Hong Kong reported on the challenges of political representation in the context of globalization and the associated difficulties for governments to fulfill their promises.

Panel discussions and research results

The workshop consisted of four thematically structured panels. The speakers in the first panel, including Prof. Dr. Petra Vodova and Dr. Juha Ylisalo, drawing attention to the implementation of election promises in coalition governments. The second panel dealt with the political framework, researching, among other things, the effects of media attention on the implementation of election promises.

Thanks to numerous case studies, it became clear that party political strategies increasingly rely on vague and populist rhetoric. In Germany, studies by... Theres Matthieß that it is often difficult to make targeted promises to specific groups of voters, as these can ultimately have a deterrent effect.

Simple demands and complex realities

The influence of broken election promises on the political landscape cannot be denied. In a 2016 survey, only 24% of respondents said they believed politicians kept their promises. Through her research, Theres Matthieß was able to show that parties that only keep 50% of their election promises lose an average of 7% of their votes. The loss is even more drastic if it falls below this threshold.

These results show that breaking election promises can have a lasting impact on citizens' political trust. The research found that distrustful citizens punish parties particularly severely for promises they fail to keep. A separate study examined the influence of information about election promises kept versus broken on trust in the federal government. The results showed that trust decreased slightly when information about broken promises was conveyed.

The workshop highlighted the need for parties to take their promises seriously. This is the only way they can avoid losing votes and maintain a strong bond with the electorate. These findings are not only important for science, but also have a direct impact on political practice in Germany and beyond.