Russia's drone provocations: Danger of war in Europe is growing!

Russia's drone provocations: Danger of war in Europe is growing!

Current developments in Europe highlight an alarming increase in tensions between Russia and NATO. On September 11, 2025, 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, which immediately caused concern and is viewed as a deliberate provocation. Four of these drones were shot down with NATO support. This came against the backdrop of an already tense relationship, further fueled by Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine and aggressive military maneuvers in the region. Experts suspect that Russia wanted to test the resilience of NATO and Western allies with these actions, reports University of Witten/Herdecke.

In a survey by Prof. Dr. According to Nils-Christian Bormann, a leading conflict researcher, 210 experts surveyed estimated the risk of a military conflict between Russia and an EU state in the next five years at a third. This estimate corresponds to the probability of rolling a one or two on a dice roll. Furthermore, the probability of a war with more than 1,000 deaths is almost a quarter. These numbers exceed the predictions of standard political science models and deserve special attention.

Reactions and political consequences

After the drone incident, Poland requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned urgently of a possible open conflict with Russia. ZDF correspondent Elmar Theveßen criticized the weak reaction of US President Donald Trump, who has not yet announced any clear military measures and is therefore considered an unreliable partner within NATO. Eastern Europe expert Sabine Adler also noted that Trump does not see the incident as a collective matter.

Jan van Aken, federal chairman of the Left, commented on the ongoing discussions about possible security guarantees for Ukraine. He described the drone incident as a test of Vladimir Putin and warned of possible escalation if NATO responded with similar means. Van Aken advocated negotiations and spoke out against the idea of ​​German ground troops in Ukraine. Instead, he suggested sending UN peacekeepers to de-escalate.

Military activity and strategies

Meanwhile, other incidents are raising concerns about Russian activities. On September 19, three Russian fighter jets spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace before being escorted back by the Italian Air Force. These and other provocations, such as drone overflights over Romania and violations of the security zone around Polish oil rigs in the Baltic Sea, contribute to the tense situation.

NATO has strengthened its eastern flank in the Baltics and is conducting maneuvers to ensure deterrence and compliance with alliance commitments. Security expert Claudia Major emphasizes that Russia's strategy is aimed at provocations and hybrid warfare. European intelligence agencies, on the other hand, warn that Russia could potentially create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war.

Overall, the risk of a military conflict between Russia and the NATO states is increasingly seen as realistic. Opinions among political scientists and historians vary, with historians estimating the risk is higher and warning that political tensions could turn into violence Deutschlandfunk reported.