Inaccurate probabilities: Bielefeld becomes a meeting point for research!

Inaccurate probabilities: Bielefeld becomes a meeting point for research!

Dealing with complex uncertainties is a central topic in various disciplines, which will be the focus of the upcoming ISIPTA 2025, the International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications. This important event will take place from July 15 to 18, 2025 at the Center for Interdisciplinary Research (ZiF) at Bielefeld University. The conference will be led by Professor Dr. Frank Riedel from Bielefeld University as well as Professor Jasper de Bock from Ghent University and Professor Dr. Max Nendel from the University of Waterloo, who previously worked at Bielefeld University, organized the event. [aktuell.uni-bielefeld.de] reports that the conference offers a platform for interdisciplinary collaboration in order to develop common solutions to the challenges of dealing with uncertainties.

Targeted subject areas include economics, finance, engineering, computer science and mathematics. Discussions will focus on the theory of imprecise probabilities, a concept that refers to probabilities that are difficult to define and whose origins date back to George Boole in the 19th century. This theory is not only important to the academic community; Practical applications in the analysis of model uncertainties, asset pricing and security technology are also highlighted. Around 85 researchers from all over the world are expected to participate, which is intended to promote interdisciplinary exchange between the social, natural and technical sciences.

Theory and practice of imprecise probabilities

Inexact probabilities provide mathematical and statistical models that allow opportunities or uncertainties to be quantified without having to specify exact probabilities. Topics covered at ISIPTA 2025 include various aspects of imprecise probabilities such as:

• Mengen von Wahrscheinlichkeitsmaßen
• Partielle Präferenzordnungen
• Spieltheoretische Wahrscheinlichkeiten
• Wahlfunktionen
• Intervallwahrscheinlichkeiten
• Risikomaße
• Nichtlineare Erwartungen
• Glaubensfunktionen
• Möglichkeitstheorie

The symposium is organized by the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications and has taken place every two years since 1999. These biennial conferences are crucial for sharing current developments in the field of inaccurate probabilities and promote an open environment in which new ideas can be discussed without offering parallel sessions. Each accepted paper will be presented in both a plenary session and a poster session, although ongoing research or preliminary results may also be presented.

Challenges of modern product development

Another aspect that must be taken into account in discussions about uncertainties is modern product development. Simulations play a crucial role in ensuring optimal design and dimensioning in the conception phase. According to [itm.uni-stuttgart.de], the power of modern computers enables faster solutions to complex problems, but this can lead to an increase in simulation accuracy that does not always reflect real-world conditions.

Uncertainties in these models can be divided into aleatory and epistemic categories. Aleatory uncertainties are random fluctuations, while epistemic uncertainties result from insufficient knowledge of mathematical models. In this context, possibility theory offers a concept for analyzing systems that works with uncertain model parameters without ignoring uncertainty.

ISIPTA 2025 thus offers an excellent opportunity for researchers and practitioners to exchange ideas about the theoretical foundations and practical applications of inaccurate probabilities and highlights the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to dealing with uncertainty.