Elections under the microscope: The mysterious CRB effect reveals suspicions of fraud!

Elections under the microscope: The mysterious CRB effect reveals suspicions of fraud!

During elections, many people tend to influence their perception of candidates based on the initial situation. A candidate who is in the lead during a campaign is often mistakenly viewed as the winner. If that candidate later loses, suspicions of fraud quickly arise. This distortion is particularly pronounced among the supporters of the supposed winner. The Cumulative Redundancy Bias (CRB) plays a crucial role here, describing a cognitive effect that makes it difficult for people to ignore information once processed. These findings were made by Dr. Moritz Ingendahl from the Ruhr University Bochum discussed it recently in the specialist journal Psychological Science published
( Ruhr University Bochum ).

The CRB means that the initial positive evaluations of leading politicians, athletes or business people are often not adjusted to their actual performance. Dr. Ingendahl and his team found that people's perceptions are strongly influenced by information they already know. Even if it would be appropriate to evaluate performance based on behavioral history, the influence of previous impressions remains. This bias is reinforced by cumulative observations and explains why leaders tend to be judged more favorably during competition, regardless of their subsequent success or failure.

Cognitive bias in different contexts

The research of Dr. Ingendahl not only refers to election campaigns, but also examines the phenomenon in other competitions such as sports and business. The results suggest that the cumulative redundancy bias is a robust phenomenon explained by an additive effect of cumulative redundancy. In four experiments conducted by different institutions, including the Ruhr University Bochum and the University of Heidelberg, the mechanisms behind this bias were examined in more detail. It was shown that people do not always update their impressions, which leads to persistent distortions that also play a role in the public perception of elections.

Overall, the study offers important insights for the communication of election results. It highlights how crucial it is to recognize and address cognitive biases to avoid misunderstandings and false accusations. This could make a significant difference in improving transparency and trust in electoral processes in future campaigns. The comprehensive analysis of the role of CRB in competitions shows that human perception is filtered by already known information, often without conscious insight into this effect.