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Overcoming fears of the future: This is how the generation of tomorrow plans!
Research project at UNI Bielefeld examines how people deal with future uncertainties. Analyzes based on everyday situations.
Overcoming fears of the future: This is how the generation of tomorrow plans!
As part of the research project “Planning-in-Action”, led by Prof. Dr. Ruth Ayaß, scientists at Bielefeld University are working intensively on the question of how people talk about future plans in everyday life and can successfully implement them. Jonas Kramer and Dr. Sarah Hitzler are the researchers involved who deal with the uncertainties of the future. This project is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and lasts from 2021 to 2024.
The analysis is based on extensive data obtained from video recordings and transcripts of conversations. These conversations often begin with a person expressing a specific intention or formulating an urgent task. The analysis produced several hundred hours of video footage, with Kramer filming a family over two weeks and later collecting additional data to get a more complete picture.
Approaches to uncertainty
The aim of the study is to identify the structures of planning discussions. A key finding suggests that when planning vacations, people often name and specify uncertain factors in order to create certainty. This points to the way in which planning is considered a future-oriented practice that seeks to actively shape future events, as urban development practice also shows.
There are two main approaches in planning theory: the dominant approach, which relies on authoritative knowledge and provides master plans, and the deliberative approach, which allows for polyphony and relies on democratic measures. The latter is exemplified by the concept of “collaborative planning”, which was coined by Patsy Healy. The uncertainties in planning therefore require not only accurate scenarios and forecasts, but also convincing communication to integrate divergent opinions.
Resilience in planning
A central concept in current planning discourse is resilience, described as the ability of a system to heal itself after disruption. Resilience-oriented planning requires proactive interventions and ensuring connectivity within urban structures. Key factors for resilience are space reserves that can be activated, diverse usage patterns, safe buildings and reliable infrastructure.
Vienna, for example, is pursuing a smart city approach that emphasizes data sovereignty and participation, while more critical voices point out the dangers of data use. The conflict over Toronto's Quay Side smart city project illustrates this, as concerns have been raised about violations of personal rights. These questions are also of considerable importance against the background of climate change and the associated challenges.
Simon Andreas Güntner, Professor of Spatial Sociology at the TU Vienna, emphasizes that planning cultures are influenced by political, social and technological developments. He emphasizes that good planning, based on clear values and sensitive interventions, enables a city worth living in for future generations.
The discussion about planning and resilience highlights how important it is that actors not only interpret their tasks in relation to current challenges, but also focus on visions of future development and dealing with uncertainties. Kramer's doctorate on the topic of “Everyday Planning” at the Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology is a further step in this important research.