Decline of facts in politics: What does this mean for democracy?

Decline of facts in politics: What does this mean for democracy?

In a comprehensive study, an international research team led by the Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality” examined the political rhetoric within eight million speeches of the US Congress from 1879 to 2022. The results show a worrying trend: reference to facts in political rhetoric has steadily declined since the 1970s, but is now at an all-time low. In a political environment characterized by growing polarization and economic inequality, this is an indication of a profound change within US politics. What is particularly striking is that the decline in factual reference among Republicans has been steeper since 2021, while at the same time legislative productivity is declining.

The study, published in the journal Nature Human Behavior, uses computer-aided analysis methods to evaluate the speeches and identify significant words. Researchers identified 49 keywords for fact-based language and 35 for intuition-based language. A newly developed indicator, the EMI (“Evidence-Minus-Intuition”), quantifies the relationship between the two types of rhetoric. A positive EMI value indicates an increased reference to facts, while a negative value suggests a bias towards personal beliefs.

The context of current US politics

Two months after the last US elections, the chambers of Congress meet for their constituent session. A key item on the agenda will be the election of the new leader of the House of Representatives, with current leader Mike Johnson, supported by Donald Trump, fighting for re-election. In the House of Representatives, Republicans have a majority with 220 of 435 seats, while the Senate had 53 Republican senators. If there are repeated conflicts over Cabinet appointments, which could face opposition in the Senate, this could significantly hinder Trump's agenda from 2026. Here the difficulties of a polarizing political climate are mixed with the challenges that such a majority brings.

Another aspect of the current political situation is the budget law of the House of Representatives, which could lead to prospective budget conflicts and possible shutdowns. Congressional investigations can play a role here. Given the growing political polarization, compromises between camps appear increasingly difficult, which poses considerable challenges for political institutions. To avoid legislative hurdles, Trump could also use presidential executive orders to pursue his policy goals, although such measures are less sustainable and can be withdrawn at any time by successors.

The role of digital media

At a time when social media is revolutionizing news and communication channels, the role it plays in political communication is crucial. Social media enables political and governmental institutions to interact directly with a mass audience and a hybrid media system is emerging. In such a system, it is crucial for politicians such as Trump to use digital platforms effectively. Trump's 2016 campaign marked a shift in political actors' use of social media by using targeted advertising based on user data.

In Germany, surveys show that more and more citizens are mainly getting their news online, which does not go unnoticed by the political parties. They are increasingly making direct contact with younger voters via digital channels. Digital campaign communication is now seen as an integral part of political strategy, with influencer marketing and micromarketing increasingly coming to the fore. These trends are leading to a reaction from traditional parties fighting for votes.

In summary, current political rhetoric in the US Congress is not only characterized by a departure from facts, but must also be viewed in the broader context of political polarization, changes in voter communication and the growing role of social media. Where some see media as a source of disinformation and fragmentation, for others they can serve as platforms for active political participation and mobilization.