Extreme weather and erosion: Germany's fields in great danger!

Extreme weather and erosion: Germany's fields in great danger!

Increasingly severe extreme weather events pose immense challenges to agriculture worldwide. According to a study by the University of Kassel, 27% of global cultivated areas are affected by waterlogging every year; this could have profound effects on yields and soil quality. Prof. Dr. Tobias K. D. Weber, one of the researchers behind this study, explains that common models for simulating agricultural yields often do not adequately reflect the effects of temporary flooding. This discrepancy could complicate the prediction of agricultural yields and the development of effective adaptation strategies, which is particularly concerning at a time of critical climatic change.

The international study was carried out as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and examines 21 different grain models. The result is alarming: only 24% of the models examined realistically simulate water movement in the soil, including important processes such as capillary rise and the transport of salts. In addition, the models show serious deficiencies in taking key soil physical and biochemical processes into account.

The effects of climate change

Climate change not only increases the frequency of extreme weather events, but also has a direct impact on food security. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that global warming is responsible for a rapid increase in extreme weather events. Examples such as the devastating heavy rains in Germany in July 2021, which claimed over 180 lives and destroyed numerous livelihoods, illustrate the urgency of addressing the already very visible consequences of climate change.

In this context, agriculture in Germany is severely affected. It is estimated that 60% of German arable land is at risk due to extreme weather conditions. The increasingly unpredictable rainfall leads to serious problems such as soil erosion, with 15-20% of soil being lost annually. Heavy rain combined with dry periods caused damage of 3.2 billion euros to the agricultural industry in the period between 2018 and 2019, which illustrates the need for action.

Necessary measures to increase resilience

The analysis of the agricultural models shows that many important processes are inadequately represented, which ultimately makes reliable predictions difficult. It is already clear today: Without an improved knowledge and modeling foundation, systematic misjudgments of the climate-related consequences for agriculture cannot be ruled out. The study therefore calls for interdisciplinary approaches that bring together hydrology, soil science, plant physiology and climate research. A global network for monitoring water levels and soil moisture dynamics could serve as a basis for better modeling.

Modern technologies, such as remote sensing and machine learning, could help overcome the many shortcomings of existing models. Only with a clear and precise presentation of the climatic challenges is it possible to increase agricultural resilience and at the same time promote biodiversity. The current high use of fertilizers and pesticides not only poses a significant threat to soil quality, but also to biodiversity. Agricultural practices urgently need to be transformed to ensure the health of soils as a basis for food production and to protect ecosystems.

The future of agriculture depends not only on technological innovations, but also on a deep understanding of natural relationships, from soil chemistry to plants' physiological responses to water stress. Only by looking at these factors in an integrative manner can the impending crisis in global food production be averted and the challenges posed by climate change successfully overcome.