Europe between Trump and power shifts: what happens next?

Europe between Trump and power shifts: what happens next?

On June 30, 2025, Klaus Welle, the former Secretary General of the European Parliament, gave an insightful lecture entitled “Europe – How to survive in the world of Donald Trump?” This took place as part of an event organized by the University of Witten/Herdecke at the International Center for Sustainable and Just Transformation [tra:ce]. Welle analyzed the geopolitical situation in Europe, particularly with regard to a possible renewed presidency of Donald Trump and its impact on international relations.

In his lecture, Welle noted an alarming shift in global balance of power. This is characterized above all by the weakening of democratic institutions and the combination of technological, media, financial and political power. In this context, he identified ten structural revolutions in US politics that illustrate that the Trump system is heavily influenced by political planning, with support from influential think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation. Welle pointed out that an alliance between tech elites and illiberal forces undermines traditional centers of power such as media and universities.

The world under Trump

According to Welle, US policy poses a significant challenge to international cooperation, particularly due to partisan foreign policy and the move away from multilateral institutions such as the UN. He emphasized: “Donald Trump’s world is a world of strong people” and called on Europe to adapt to this reality or develop its own approaches.

In contrast to Welles' in-depth analyses, the Tagesschau emphasizes Trump's transactional foreign policy, which is heavily oriented towards business negotiations. In this school of thought, international politics is viewed as competition for resources, with the law of the strongest often prevailing. This approach is evident in Trump's policies, where alliances are formed only for specific deals, without long-term commitments.

Donald Trump has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to run the US like a business, which is reflected in his negotiating style, which he describes as simple and direct. This transactional approach could have further implications for international relations, particularly through the uncertainty caused by Trump's refusal to make binding commitments to the NATO assistance guarantee.

Challenges for Europe

The uncertainties in US policy under Trump could also result in a destabilization of the world order established after the Second World War. Experts doubt that the US would benefit from a break with old allies. For their part, states such as Russia and China could continue to pursue their own interests, regardless of American offers. These developments highlight the fragility of a Trump-driven geopolitical climate.

In addition to the challenges arising from Trump's policies, the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) is conducting various studies to examine the strategic rivalry between the USA and China and the EU's reactions to a changing global order. The SWP study “Strategic Autonomy of Europe” by Barbara Lippert and Volker Perthes looks at responses to the new dependencies and challenges created by rising powers.

The entire discussion that followed Welles' talk showed that the audience was both excited and inspired. Questions about ensuring democracy and social cohesion in Europe were raised and it became clear that Europe faces the need to strengthen its military and economic capacities in the face of more extreme geopolitical developments. Klaus Welle's lecture not only illuminated the challenges under the Trump presidency, but also brought to the surface the urgent challenges for Europe in an increasingly polarized world.