Increase in Hurricanes: What Research Reveals in the Great Blue Hole!

Increase in Hurricanes: What Research Reveals in the Great Blue Hole!

A new study conducted by a research team led by the University of Frankfurt, in collaboration with the University of Göttingen, shows alarming trends in the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes in the southwestern Caribbean. Research results, published in the journal Science Advances, are based on the analysis of sediment layers in the “Great Blue Hole” off Belize. The analysis covers a period of 5,700 years and shows that the number of tropical storms and hurricanes has continued to increase. In recent decades in particular, the frequency of hurricanes has experienced a dramatic increase, indicating the effects of climate change. Loud uni-goettingen.de A total of 574 hurricane events were identified and dated.

The Great Blue Hole itself is a fascinating geological phenomenon with a depth of 125 meters and a diameter of around 300 meters. In the cave's sediments, scientists were able to discover important climate archives that enable precise dating of storm events. The conditions in this cave have allowed sediments to deposit undisturbed, becoming a valuable source for climatological research. 20,000 years ago, Lighthouse Reef was an island with freshwater springs, but 7,200 years ago it was flooded by rising sea levels.

A worrying trend

The increase in hurricane frequency and intensity is not limited to the Caribbean. Loud bildungsserver.hamburg.de Tropical cyclones that occur in tropical regions of all three oceans are a significant threat. They are called hurricanes in the North Atlantic, typhoons in the western North Pacific and cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean. Hurricane Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008, left over 138,000 dead and shows the devastating impact such storms can have even in this century.

Statistics show that the population affected by tropical cyclones increased from 408 million in 2002 to 792 million per year in 2019. This increase is linked to global warming and the associated intensification of these storms. Data from the last 50 years record $1.4 trillion in damages and show the enormous economic impact of such natural events.

Outlook for the future

The forecasts for the future are worrying. Anticipated developments suggest that regional storm impacts could increase by 2100. This is consistent with the findings of the IPCC report AR6, which indicates that many changes in cyclone activity are not due solely to natural causes. They could also be heavily influenced by anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases. Deutschlandfunk describes that the increase in hurricane intensity is a serious consequence of global warming and it could affect up to 40% more people due to population growth by 2050.

Although Germany is not directly affected by hurricanes, the indirect consequences such as migration flows and disrupted trade chains can also be felt here. A structural change towards greenhouse gas neutrality is essential for many countries, and especially for Germany, in order to counteract the long-term effects of climate change and thus also the increasing hurricane risks.